Irrigation water productivity in Cambodian rice systems

Knowledge of the marginal productivity of water is crucial for decisions about its allocation between uses, which is particularly important in the context of increasing competition for water. Using primary, plot‐level panel data, this article estimates the marginal productivity of water from supplementary irrigation in lowland rice systems in Cambodia, taking into account farmer and plot heterogeneity as well as self‐selection of supplementary irrigation. Our estimates indicate a range of elasticities for rice output with respect to water inputs of between 0.057 and 0.069 for wet season production, substantially lower than previous estimates based on either aggregate or trial data. We discuss the policy implications of these results, in particular with respect to the utility of demand management policies and the challenges they pose to the decentralization of water management to Farmer Water Users Groups.     

The Impact of Ambiguity on Managerial Investment and Cash Holdings

Standard finance theory suggests that managers invest in projects that, in expectation, produce returns that justify the use of capital. An underlying assumption is that managers have the information necessary to understand the distributional properties of the pay‐offs underlying the decision. This paper examines firm investment behavior when managers are likely to find it more challenging to develop expectations of pay‐offs, namely during periods of increased macroeconomic ambiguity. In particular, we examine how macroeconomic ambiguity – proxied by the variance premium (Drechsler, 2010 ) and the dispersion in forecasts of corporate profits from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (Anderson et al., 2009 ) – impacts managerial capital investment and cash holdings. Consistent with ambiguity theory, we find that macroeconomic ambiguity is negatively associated with capital investment and positively associated with cash holdings. These results are robust to alternative explanations related to risk, investor sentiment and economic conditions. Moreover, consistent with recent theoretical real options literature, we find that ambiguity reduces the value of investment opportunities, while risk increases the value of such opportunities. Overall, these findings provide initial empirical evidence on the economic distinction between ambiguity and risk with respect to managerial investment and cash holdings.     

The labour share and the dynamics of output

We derive a new Keynesian IS curve that is augmented to capture the direct effects of the labour share on output. Our derivation shows that the direct effect of the labour share on output is ambiguous. Furthermore, theory suggests that the expected labour share negatively affects output. Empirically, we find that the labour share plays a significant role in driving output dynamics. However contrary to theoretical expectation, the expected labour share positively affects output in some cases, a finding we call the ‘labour share puzzle’. We also find that over time, there seems to be a general shift in aggregate demand dynamics towards being profit-led, i.e. rising labour share decreases output. We conclude that policymakers should not ignore the labour share in their decisions.     

Prototypicality advantages for pioneers over me-too brands: the role of evolving product designs

Prior empirical research suggests that consumers perceive pioneers as more prototypical (i.e., representative) of their product categories than me-too followers. This prototypicality advantage is believed to contribute to an enduring marketplace advantage for the pioneer. We extend research into pioneering prototypicality advantages by considering the ramifications of simultaneous product design (i.e., product attribute) evolutions. We hypothesize that the simultaneous evolution of product designs of both the pioneer and me-too will diminish the pioneer’s prototypicality advantage over the me-too, even though the me-too does not initiate the change. To test our hypotheses, we create an experimental environment consisting of four cells, each corresponding to a different marketplace scenario: a no-change condition; a simultaneous-evolution condition; a pioneer-updates-first condition; and a leapfrogging (i.e., me-too updates first) condition. The results suggest that simultaneous design evolutions can diminish the pioneer’s prototypicality advantage. As a result, me-too entry may be a more attractive strategy in the long-run than currently believed in product categories characterized by substantial design evolution.

Predicting credit card fraud with Sarbanes‐Oxley assessments and Fama‐French risk factors

This research developed and tested machine learning models to predict significant credit card fraud in corporate systems using Sarbanes‐Oxley (SOX) reports, news reports of breaches and Fama‐French risk factors (FF). Exploratory analysis found that SOX information predicted several types of security breaches, with the strongest performance in predicting credit card fraud. A systematic tuning of hyperparamters for a suite of machine learning models, starting with a random forest, an extremely‐randomized forest, a random grid of gradient boosting machines (GBMs), a random grid of deep neural nets, a fixed grid of general linear models where assembled into two trained stacked ensemble models optimized for F1 performance; an ensemble that contained all the models, and an ensemble containing just the best performing model from each algorithm class. Tuned GBMs performed best under all conditions. Without FF, models yielded an AUC of 99.3% and closeness of the training and validation matrices confirm that the model is robust. The most important predictors were firm specific, as would be expected, since control weaknesses vary at the firm level. Audit firm fees were the most important non‐firm‐specific predictors. Adding FF to the model rendered perfect prediction (100%) in the trained confusion matrix and AUC of 99.8%. The most important predictors of credit card fraud were the FF coefficient for the High book‐to‐market ratio Minus Low factor. The second most influential variable was the year of reporting, and third most important was the Fama‐French 3‐factor model R² – together these described most of the variance in credit card fraud occurrence. In all cases the four major SOX specific opinions rendered by auditors and the signed SOX report had little predictive influence.     

Business cycle asymmetry via occasionally binding international borrowing constraints

This paper illustrates how occasionally binding credit constraints can be quantitatively important to delivering business-cycle asymmetries. An empirical exercise suggests that countries display some business-cycles asymmetries, and an open-economy real business-cycle model is assessed where an international borrowing constraint binds occasionally. In the model, downward movements with a slack constraint are sharper and quicker than upward movements with a binding constraint, and this can deliver asymmetry over the business cycle. The model is calibrated to Canadian data and suggests that a necessary ingredient for asymmetry is a high initial level of foreign debt.     

Outside versus inside bonds: A Modigliani–Miller type result for liquidity constrained economies

When agents are liquidity constrained, two options exist – sell assets or borrow. We compare the allocations arising in two economies: in one, agents can sell government (outside) bonds and in the other they can borrow by issuing (inside) bonds. All transactions are voluntary, implying no taxation or forced redemption of private debt. We show that any allocation in the economy with inside bonds can be replicated in the economy with outside bonds but that the converse is not true. However, the optimal policy in each economy makes the allocations equivalent.